Secretary of State Clinton to term Southern Sudan a ‘ticking time bomb

Sudan Defence & Security Report Q4 2010: New research report available at Fast Market Research

– The looming referendum date has led Secretary of State Clinton to term Southern Sudan a ‘ticking time bomb’, in reference to the threat of renewed conflict. She has urged Southern Sudan to make concessions over oil income to the Sudanese government so as to avoid conflict should (as is expected) the South vote in favour of complete independence in the referendum. This follows growing concern that the Sudanese government is aiming to delay and frustrate the process, as it appears to obstruct efforts to delineate borders between the two. The creation of clear borders is essential for determining who is eligible to vote in the coming referendum, but the border commission has been delayed, which has had a knock-on effect in delaying other efforts to prepare for the referendum.

The US government has said that, should Sudan fail to comply with the terms of the 2005 peace deal, it will seek to implement harsher sanctions on Sudan. However, should things progress peacefully and successfully, the US will review its sanctions against Sudan. It has promised to allow investment into non-oil industries and has even promised to consider remove the designation of Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Sudan and Iran have continued to develop closer diplomatic, economic and military relations. The two countries, which are both subject to sanctions, have particularly focused on close military cooperation. An important shift in this regards is the increasing tendency of the Sudanese military to equip itself with Iranian weaponry – in comparison to the previous dominance of Chinese and Russian weaponry.

The Sudanese cabinet has agreed to a new Darfur peace plan. The plan is understood to be focused on encouraging local actors to end violence so as to establish a secure environment for civilians to return to their villages and also includes pledges for US$1.9bn in development aid for the region. The plan has been criticised by rebel groups as a new way for the government to commit atrocities through local actors. The government has been trying to exert control over the internal refugee camps and has set up alternative camps which will be free of weapons. According to the government these camps have attracted many inhabitants, however these developments occur after new attacks by government-backed militias on other internal refugee camps.

Despite the general difficulties in determining defence spending in Sudan, it is expected that defence expenditure will continue to grow as the Sudanese government maintains sizeable military forces. However, this is unlikely to provide opportunities for private defence firms given the arms embargo on Sudan and the determination of the international community to implement many of the terms of the sanctions regime. What few opportunities do exist are reserved for Iranian or, potentially, Chinese firms.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

– Sudan Security SWOT

– Sudan Political SWOT

– Sudan Economic SWOT

– Sudan Business Environment SWOT

Global Political Outlook

– Global Hotspots

– Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011

– United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections

– Latin America: Beyond Lula

– Western Europe: All About Austerity

– Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested

– South-East Europe: Turkey’s Ongoing Evolution

– Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security

Middle East: Ongoing Challenges

– Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum

– Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail

– Wild Cards To Watch

– Middle East Security Overview

– The Middle East In A Global Context

– Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security

– Regional Power Dynamics

– Nuclear Proliferation

– External Powers

– The Outlook For The Middle East

Security Risk Ratings

– BMI’s Security Ratings

– Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings

– Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index

– City Terrorism Rating

– Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index

Political Overview

– Foreign Policy

– Domestic Politics

– Long-Term Political Outlook

Security Risk Overview

– Internal Security Situation

– Latest Developments

– External Security Situation

– Latest Developments

Armed Forces

– Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 (including conscripted)

Market Structure

– Arms Trade Overview

Industry Forecast Scenario

– Armed Forces

– Table: Armed Forces, 2005-2014 (‘000 personnel)

– Military Expenditure

– Table: Defence Expenditure, 2005-2014

– Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

– Macroeconomic Forecast

– Table: Sudan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014

BMI Methodology

– How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

– Defence Industry

– City Terrorism Rating

– Table: Methodology

– Sources

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